Yemen and Its Youth Population: A Closer Look

Policymakers in Yemen are facing a gauntlet of challenges: oil revenues are waning, there are high levels of general unemployment, and the country faces continued internal threats to political stability in the Houthi-led rebellion in the North, widespread secessionist sentiment in the South, and the presence of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In this climate, the twin challenges of human development and natural resources continue to create additional pressure on Yemeni institutions – pressure which is largely felt by the country’s young people.

Yet there have been clear demonstrations of political will to address the needs and problems of Yemeni youth, as exemplified by Yemen’s National Childhood and Youth Strategy and other strong public commitments. While declining oil revenues are worrisome for Yemen’s continued growth, the country’s first Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project, which has been delayed several times in 2009, should provide a temporary boost to public revenues in 2010. There are also positive signs from the international community: recent measures undertaken by some of Yemen’s GCC neighbors to employ more Yemeni workers show that Yemen’s neighbors are beginning to acknowledge that they have a role to play in Yemen’s development.

To read more about Yemen’s youth population, see: Ragui Assaad et al., Youth Exclusion in Yemen: Tackling the Twin Deficits of Human Development and Natural Resources. Middle East Youth Initiative Working Paper 9. November 2009. *NEW*

Please also refer to the Middle East Youth Initiative’s new book: Generation in Waiting: The Unfulfilled Promise of Young People in the Middle East, ed. Navtej Dhillon and Tarik Yousef (Washington, DC: Brookings Press, 2009).

Facts on Yemen

Source, unless noted: Ragui Assaad et al., Youth Exclusion in Yemen: Tackling the Twin Deficits of Human Development and Natural Resources. Middle East Youth Initiative Working Paper 9. November 2009.

YEMEN’S YOUTH BULGE

• Nearly three-quarters of Yemen’s population is under the age of 25, and the median age of the population is estimated to be between 17 and 18 years old. [1] 

• Fertility rates, while declining, are still an estimated 6.7 children per woman in rural areas and 4.5 children per woman in urban areas, exceeding averages in the Middle East region.

• Due to the late decline in fertility rates, youth between the ages of 15 and 29 will make up 28 to 30 percent of the total population – which also continues to grow at a fast clip – for the next 30 to 40 years.

NATURAL RESOURCE CHALLENGES: WATER, OIL AND LAND

• Yemen has about one-tenth of the water supply needed in order to be food self-sufficient.

• Oil production is expected to continue to decline annually until it is depleted around 2020. Oil revenues have traditionally been an important contributor to Yemen’s GDP.

• Population growth, urbanization, and land usage practices are threatening Yemen’s land resources.

EDUCATION

• Enrollment rates are low, especially among certain disadvantaged groups: for example, 63 percent of girls in rural areas never enroll in school, compared to 20 percent for girls in urban areas. This wide gap is also reflected in the predicted length of time that girls stay in school: those girls residing in urban areas are more likely to enroll in school and to stay in school for longer.

• For families with young girls, it more often may be logisitical considerations – not traditional values – that are preventing them from sending their daughters to school. These considerations include, according to Assaad et. al, “the absence of female teachers, co-educational classes, a lack of female-appropriate sanitary and recreational facilities, and the peril of solitary travel to the nearest school.”

• The percentage of young students who are over-age for their grade in school is staggering. By age eight, for example, 60 percent of Yemeni boys are over-age and more than half of Yemeni girls are over-age. These rates increase for most groups as students get older, indicating that students either repeat grades or that they take time off during which they are not in school. As Assaad et. al point out: “Both phenomena illustrate that the opportunity cost of education in Yemen is high and its benefit viewed as low.”

• Illiteracy is widespread. With only only 35 percent of women above the age of 15 considered literate, and 54 percent of all adults, many are excluded from productive opportunities at the most basic level. [2]

• As of 2005-2006, only 1.4 percent of Yemeni students were enrolled in technical and vocational education and training, reflecting a system with weak incentives for participation and subsidization.

• Overcrowding in schools is common. According to Assaad et. al, Yemen’s shortage of educational facilities has forced the Ministry of Education to admit 50 percent of its students in recent years into schools housed in unsuitable structures, including tents, caves, or the open air. Further, the qualifications of basic education teachers continues to be a problem.

TRANSITIONS TO THE LABOR MARKET: UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFORMALITY

• For young men, the level of education achieved does not seem to have much effect on prospects for unemployment: unemployment hovers around 20 percent for all educational groups. However, men who have attained the lowest level of education, or none at all, are most likely to be out of the labor force altogether. The importance of education is further reflected in relative earnings: “a young man with a primary education earns 30 percent more than a comparable man with no education, and a young man with a high school education receives approximately 40 percent more than a young man with only a primary education.”

• Very few women with less than a secondary school education participate in the labor force. Women with higher levels of education are most vulnerable to unemployment. In urban areas, roughly 40 percent of women with university degrees are unemployed.

• While most youth do work for a wage or salary, there is a high degree of informality to the labor market. Only 26 percent of employed men in urban areas and 17 percent in rural areas have formal employment with some benefits. The vast majority of these formal positions are with the government or public sector.

• Nearly 89 percent of formal employment held by urban women is in government, demonstrating the limited availability of private sector opportunities.